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Northern Branch Jail Operating Cost Santa Barbara CA Grand Jury Report 2014

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Northern Branch Jail Operating Cost
When They Build It You Will Pay
SUMMARY
After years of study and planning, Santa Barbara County is confronting its jail-overcrowding
problem by constructing a new Northern Branch Jail, which includes a transition and reentry
complex, just outside the city limits of Santa Maria. The state is bearing almost 90 percent of the
nearly $136 million for construction of the facility. However, the true cost only begins here
because county taxpayers will be wholly responsible for annual operating cost. County analysts
estimate the new jail operating cost will exceed $20 million in the first full year of operation
(2017-18) and will increase annually thereafter.
The county prepared a budget plan in 2011 for funding the operating cost based on the belief that
annual discretionary revenues will grow and these increases alone could fund future operating
cost in a way that would be painless to the public. A senior county official informed the 2013-14
Santa Barbara County Grand Jury that the preliminary budget plan is, “a leap of faith,” and
another said, “it could work.” If the projected revenue growth is not realized, meeting the
operating cost will require new revenue sources, a decrease in county services, or a combination
of these.
Given the risks of revenue shortfall identified in this report, the Santa Barbara County Board of
Supervisors must prepare alternative plans to fund Northern Branch Jail operating cost. It is
critically important that the citizens of the county continually monitor this funding plan.
BACKGROUND
The Santa Barbara County Main Jail (Main Jail) opened in 1971. By 2007, the facility housed
over 1000 inmates, even though the rated capacity was only 818.
In 2008 a Blue Ribbon Commission convened by Sheriff Brown recommended construction of a
new jail in north county to house 300 inmates. 1 The Commission realistically observed that, in
order to pay for both the construction and operation of the facility, a "new dedicated revenue
stream" would be needed in order to prevent "significant curtailments" to existing county
programs and services. 2

1

Final Report and Recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Commission on Jail Overcrowding, February 2008
(BRCR), p. 29 (last visited May 5, 2014)
2
Ibid., p. 30

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
Overcrowding conditions have plagued the Main Jail for decades. Two efforts to fund
construction of a new jail in north county through a sales tax increase (2000 and 2010) were
rejected by voters. There have also been four Grand Jury (Jury) reports calling for additional jail
capacity. 3,4,5,6
The State Legislature enacted AB 900 (2008) and AB 94 (2011) which authorized creation of a
prison construction fund through the sale of bonds to help defray the planning and construction
costs. In July 2012, Santa Barbara County (County) was awarded $80 million from the fund with
a 10 percent matching provision. And in January 2014 an additional $38.9 million (also with a 10
percent matching provision) was approved for construction of a Sheriff's Transition and Reentry
(STAR) facility.
Funding the annual operating cost of the combined facility will be the sole responsibility of
Santa Barbara County taxpayers. This report alerts the public to the potential consequences.
METHODOLOGY
In order to investigate the funding plan for the Northern Branch Jail (NBJ) operating cost, the
Jury interviewed members of the County CEO’s office, Sheriff’s Office, and senior officials who
are responsible for various financial matters for the County. The Jury also reviewed data to
corroborate answers from these officials. The Jury thanks these officials for their assistance.
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
The Board of Supervisors’ (BOS) strategy for funding future operating cost of NBJ is to create a
“reserve fund” to defray that cost through 2023, after which revenue flow is expected to be
adequate.7 The County’s chart and table below illustrate the projected balance of the reserve fund
that is intended to be funded solely by projected increases in discretionary revenue. 8
Discretionary revenue is composed primarily of property tax (87.5 percent), and supplemented
by sales tax (3.7 percent), transient occupancy tax (TOT) (3.3 percent) and miscellaneous

3

No Vacancy: The Need for a North County Jail, 2004-05 SBCGJ Report (No Vacancy)
A New North County Jail? - A Need That Will Not Go Away! 2006-07 SBCGJ Report (New NorCo Jail)
5
North County Jail - A Step at a Time 2007-08 SBCGJ Report (NorCo Jail)
6
An Overcrowded Santa Barbara County Main Jail - How Long Will This Situation Continue? 2009-10 SBCGJ
Report (Main Jail Overcrowding)
7
Santa Barbara County Operating Budget FY2011-12, Figure 6 p. A-13, PDF p. 25 of 665
(http://www.countyofsb.org/ceo/budgetresearch/documents/budgethearing1112/2011-12 Budget Book-FINAL.pdf);
approved on June 17, 2011, BOS File# 11-00467, “Action Details” (last visited May 5, 2014)
8
“Recommended Operation Plan FY 2013-15”, Figure 11, Data for Figure 11, p. B-18, PDF p. 36 of 406,
(http://www.countyofsb.org/ceo/budgetresearch/documents/budgethearing1314/Recommended_Operation_Plan_FY
_13-15.pdf, last visited May 5, 2014)
4

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
receipts (5.5 percent).9 Of these, the sum of sales tax and TOT revenues are not only small
compared to property tax revenue, but are less predictable as well, whereas property tax receipts
have historically increased every year. Discretionary revenue increases are dominated even more
by property tax increases (PTI), which average about 95% of those increases annually. As a
result, PTI is used as a proxy for revenue increase. For details regarding components of revenue
increases, refer to the Appendix.

Figure 1. Santa Barbara County’s Plan to Fund NBJ Operating Cost. Note the legend that abbreviates
discretionary General Fund Contribution as GFC. The darker portion of each bar is “GFC Increase”
which is revenue flow derived from current year increases; the lighter portion of each bar is “GFC Base”
which is established revenue flow from prior years’ increases. Source: See footnote 8.

According to the plan, projected PTI (hoped to be at least 3.5 percent per annum) results in
growth of the reserve fund balance to $18.6 million in 2017. When the jail opens in FY2017-18,
PTI, supplemented by a reserve fund contribution of $1.4 million, pays the operating cost for the
first (partial) year. The reserve fund balance decreases annually after FY2017-18 until it reaches
zero in FY2022-23, when the revenue stream derived primarily from PTI is anticipated to cover
the entire operating cost.

9

See Property Tax Highlights, http://taxes.co.santa-barbara.ca.us/propertytax.asp, Retail Sales & Use Tax Report,
http://www.countyofsb.org/auditor/default.aspx?id=1234#sales, Transient Occupancy Tax Report, same URL (last
visited May 5, 2014)

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

Table 1 shows the values (in Millions) used to construct the Figure 1. GFC = General Fund Contribution.
The sum of columns “GFC Base” and “GFC Increase” is the amount added annually to the reserve fund,
whose balance, net of Operating Costs, is shown in the “End of Year” column. Note that $3 million was
appropriated in 2012-13 to form part of the County’s matching contribution to capital cost to satisfy State
grant requirements. Source: See footnote 8.

“End of Year” in both Figure 1 and Table 1 refer to the reserve fund balance.
The reserve grows because a prescribed amount of each year’s PTI is diverted to this fund. Based
on an assumed 3.5 percent annual PTI, the annual contributions to the reserve fund will average
about 28 percent of that increase, through FY2022-23 (see Figure 3). Of course, this requires an
expanding economy, which is beyond the control of the BOS. It also assumes a level of
discipline sufficient to continue to allocate this and future years’ PTI to this fund. Maintaining
the required focus and fiscal discipline in the face of pressure to allocate funding elsewhere will
represent a significant challenge.
Referring to the County Property Tax Highlights, “The Property Tax revenue outlook for 201415 looks like it may not continue what was hoped to be an upward growth trend. Based on an
analysis of the major categories of roll growth countywide property tax growth is anticipated to
be in the range of 2.9% - 4.0%.” 10 (Emphasis added.) Reviewing PTI data from the past 30 years,
in seven of those years PTI is less than 3.5 percent, as shown in Figure 2. 11 (In fact, in four of the
last five years PTI averaged less than one percent.) This observation is of prime importance to
the citizens of Santa Barbara County and requires their continuing attention.

10

Property Tax Highlights, County of Santa Barbara Fiscal Year July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014, PDF p. 10 of 11,
http://taxes.co.santa-barbara.ca.us/highlights/Prop%20Tax%20Highlights%202013-14.pdf (last visited May 5, 2014)
11
Ibid. p. 3

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

Figure 2. PTI data plotted for the last 30 years shows that in seven of those years PTI did not achieve
the target of 3.5 percent. 2014 datum is an estimate.

•
•
•
•
•
•

There are potential problems affecting the success of the plan. These include:
The NBJ plan does not account for the impact of Measure “M”, the June 3, 2014 ballot initiative
that, if passed, would allocate approximately $20 million per annum to deferred infrastructure
maintenance costs
Any catastrophic event (e.g., drought, fire, earthquake, or other act of nature) may derail these
plans
Any significant refurbishment or redesign of the existing Main Jail will require additional
funding whose source has not been identified 12
Senior county officials acknowledge the inability to forecast real property assessments accurately
more than three years in advance
The County Fire Department has already been budgeted 25 percent of the PTI over the next
several years, and this is achieved directly through permanent tax transfers, removing it from
discretionary revenue
With the NBJ budgeted a prescribed dollar amount of annual PTI for the reserve fund, when
combined with the Fire Department allocation, less than 50 percent of the PTI is likely to be
available to all other County departments through FY2022-23
Figures 3 and 4 show the proportion of anticipated PTI for Fire, Sheriff, NBJ and all other
12

Agenda letter to BOS from CEO Wallar, April 16, 2013, p. 3 of 4 Board Letter of 4/16/2013
(https://santabarbara.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=2408611&GUID=8B991D61-C5A4-4BA2-84A9FA32B0FDC7F7, last visited May 5, 2014)

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
departments for two Jury-generated scenarios with constant PTI values of 3.5 percent and 2.5
percent. Comparison of these two charts shows a reduction in PTI allocation for “all other
departments” if the 3.5 percent PTI is not realized.

Allocation of 3.5 Percent PTI
Through 2023

All Depts
Other Than
Fire & Sheriff
40%

Fire
25%

Northern
Branch Jail
28%

Sheriff
7%

Figure 3. Percentage Allocation for PTI of 3.5 percent

Allocation of 2.5 Percent PTI
Through 2023
All Depts
Other Than
Fire & Sheriff
33.5%

Fire
25.0%

Northern
Branch Jail
36.0%
Sheriff
5.5%

Figure 4. Percentage Allocation for PTI of 2.5 percent.

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

•
•
•

•
•

•
•
•

The Jury concludes that additional revenue may be required to help fund the operating cost of the
NBJ, because:
Costs may exceed the allotted PTI
When accounting for needs from deferred maintenance, cost of living increases for other County
employees, and other demands, the addition of NBJ Operating Cost may overburden the County,
making it difficult to meet its obligations to all stakeholders
Matching agreements with State and Federal governments may jeopardize the County’s option to
cut services in order to meet budget goals 13
For the current funding plan to work, the following must also be addressed:
Ensure the Assessor’s office has expertise to take full advantage of potential PTI, particularly
with regard to specialized industries such as oil and gas, wineries, and upscale hotels
The BOS must be vigilant in adhering to the plan. Newly elected Supervisors are likely to have
their own priorities that could divert funding away from the plan
In 2008 the County published options for funding NBJ operating cost.14 The alternatives
identified in the analysis for substantially funding the NBJ operating cost were:
Parcel Tax: $150 per annum assessment on each of 120,000 parcels yielding $18 million
annually
Sales Tax: ¼ percent assessment yielding $16 million annually
Utility Users’ Tax: 6 percent assessment on gas, electric, water, phone, and cable TV for all
residents of unincorporated areas of the county, yielding $15M annually
None of these options is likely to be embraced by county voters. Other options need to be
considered, such as a special NBJ assessment, a salary freeze, an across-the-board budget freeze,
and staff layoffs (which would cause a reduction in services). Similar to tax increases, none of
these options is palatable.
Nonetheless, there is an uncomfortably high probability that PTI will not be adequate, thereby
creating a fiscal deficit that will require cuts to County services, a salary freeze, layoffs, a tax
increase, or some other painful option.
CONCLUSION
After numerous interviews with County officials and reviewing substantial amounts of data, the
Santa Barbara County Grand Jury is concerned that the plan adopted by the Board of Supervisors
to fund the future operating cost of the Northern Branch Jail complex requires both an improving
economy and fiscal discipline. The most experienced of those officials are the most conservative
in their estimates and, like the Jury, are cautious in their view of whether the county’s plan will
13

Ibid., p. 4 of 4
Northern Branch Fiscal Analysis Report D-7 Nov 4 2008, Item 12-00752 of BOS Meeting, October 2, 2012,
Attachment J (https://santabarbara.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=2137868&GUID=5F43D666-CB37-4165A80C-368527865756, last visited on May 5, 2014)
14

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
be successful. The Jury analysis presented in the Appendix Table A-1 estimates that the plan has
a 50-70 percent chance of success. Should the execution of this plan not meet expectations, there
is a significant probability that either a fee or tax assessment, or a reduction in services will be
necessary.
The Board of Supervisors is responsible for maintaining focus on this issue. Citizens are
responsible for assuring that the Board does so.
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Finding 1A
The current plan to fund Northern Branch Jail operating cost is based on estimates of property
tax increases of no less than 3.5 percent per year.
Finding 1B
The plan is based on the Board of Supervisors exercise of discipline necessary to allocate
roughly 28 percent of the property tax increases to the reserve fund through FY2022-23.
Finding 1C
According to the results in Figure 2 and Table A-1, the probability of the success of the Northern
Branch Jail operating plan is most likely to be in the range of 50 to 70 percent.
Recommendation 1
That the County prominently display data graphically on the County website and distribute to
news media the reserve fund balance superimposed on the planned balance as shown in Figure 5
below, to disclose annually whether funding goals are being met.

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

Figure 5. Recommended format for displaying reserve fund Plan versus Actual (hypothetical for 2015 and
later)

Finding 2
The County Fire Department is allocated 25 percent of property tax increases; for property tax
increases of 3.5 percent, the current plan allocates 28 percent of property tax increases for NBJ,
leaving the County with 47 percent of property tax increases for all other departments.
Recommendation 2A
That the County show both the annual property tax increases values and percentage increase over
prior year on the County website and distribute to news media in a format similar to Table 3
below.

FYE

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

County
Property
Tax
Revenue
($M)
174.4
176.2
183.4
190.2
195.2
205.0
210.0
212.2
226.9
240.5
251.1
261.3

PTI
Property
Ratio of Ratio of
Plan Funding
Tax
Available
Year's
Percentage FD Allot NBJ Allot
Increase
Increase
to All
Contribution
Increase to Total to Total
Over Prior
(PTI)
Other
to NBJ ($M)
PTI
PTI
Year ($M)
($M)
Depts
2.4
1.40%
0%
42%
58%
1.0
1.0
1.7
1.00%
338%
57%
-296%
1.0
2.0
7.2
4.10%
25%
18%
57%
1.3
3.3
6.9
3.74%
25%
19%
56%
1.3
4.6
5.0
2.61%
25%
30%
45%
1.5
6.1
9.8
5.04%
25%
15%
60%
1.5
7.6
4.9
2.40%
25%
30%
45%
1.5
9.1
2.2
1.06%
25%
81%
-6%
1.8
10.9
14.7
6.92%
25%
12%
63%
1.8
12.7
13.6
5.99%
25%
16%
59%
2.2
14.9
10.6
4.42%
25%
21%
54%
2.2
17.1
10.2
4.06%
25%
22%
53%
2.2
19.3

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

Reserve
Fund
Balance
($M)
1.0
0.0
3.3
7.9
13.7
18.6
17.2
10.8
5.6
2.1
0.2
0.0

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
Table 3. Displays property tax increases and allocation. Data for 2014 are estimated; data is hypothetical
for 2015 and later and are not intended to be predictions but are intended for format only.

Recommendation 2B
That the County prominently display a graph similar to Figure 5 below, on the County website
and distribute to news media that contains the annual percentages of property tax increases
allocated to Public Safety (Probation, Fire and Sheriff’s Office), (2) Northern Branch Jail, and
(3) all other departments.

PTI Allocation: NBJ, Fire, and All Other
Departments

54%
21% 25%

59%

63%

25%
2020

2021

2022

-6%

16% 25%

2013

12% 25%

2012

81%

45%

60%

45%

2017

25%

Fire

2016

31%

NBJ

25%

56%

338%

57%

2015

15% 25%

-20%
-40%

2014

-295%

0%

30%

20%

19% 25%

40%

18% 25%

60%

57%

80%

59%

100%

42%

PTI Allocation by Percentage

120%

2018

2019

All Other Departments

Figure 5. Example displaying percentage of PTI allocated to Northern Branch Jail, Fire and All Other
Departments. Data for 2014 are estimated; data are hypothetical for 2015 and later and are not intended
to be predictions but are intended for format only.

Finding 3
The public may not be informed concerning the potential impact that Northern Branch Jail
operating cost may have on staffing and services provided by other departments.
Recommendation 3
That the Board of Supervisors communicate with their constituents, at least annually, concerning
staffing and service cuts, revenue enhancements, or other options that may be necessary to fund
Northern Branch Jail operating cost.

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
Finding 4
The Office of the County Assessor appears not to have the expertise to take full advantage of the
potential for additional property tax revenue based on higher assessments of specialized
industries such as oil and gas, wineries, and upscale hotels.
Recommendation 4
That the Board of Supervisors collaborate with the County Assessor to assure the Office of the
County Assessor has adequate capacity and expertise to optimize property tax receipts from
specialized industries.
Finding 5
The Santa Barbara County Jail Northern Branch Fiscal Analysis, Facts & Figures published in
November 2008 is outdated.
Recommendation 5
That the Board of Supervisors update and publish the referenced report to revisit options that
could mitigate any shortfall in operating cost if and when that shortfall becomes apparent.
REQUEST FOR RESPONSE
Pursuant to California Penal Code Section 933 and 933.05, the Jury requests each entity or
individual named below to respond to the enumerated findings and recommendations within the
specified statutory time limit:
Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors – 90 days
Findings 1A, 1B, 1C, 2, 3, 4, and 5
Recommendations 1, 2A, 2B, 3, 4, and 5

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

APPENDIX
USING PROPERTY TAX INCREASE AS A PROXY FOR DISCRETIONARY
REVENUE INCREASE
County revenue increases are predominantly due to property tax increases (PTI). PTI is driven
both from the maximum 2 percent annual increase allowed under Proposition 13 and increases
due to reassessment following sale of real property, including new development. In response to
Jury inquiry, the County Executive Office responded, “General County revenues . . . are
primarily derived from various Property Taxes and to a lesser extent, Sales Taxes, Transient
Occupancy Taxes (TOT) and other miscellaneous revenue accounts.” As previously stated, and
shown in Figure A-1, property tax accounts for about 88% of County revenue.

Comparison of Tax Revenue:
Property versus TOT+Sales
Property Tax

Prop+TOT+Sales

Revenue ($Million)

190
170
150
130
110
90
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fiscal Year Ending
Figure A-1. Comparison of property tax with sum of property, sales and transient occupancy taxes
shows that most of revenue increases are from PTI

Revenue increases are dominated by property tax increases. Figure A-2 plots sales tax and sales
tax + TOT since 2003. These data sets are from the highlights on the County website (see
footnote 10), but have been adjusted to account for Goleta’s City/County sales tax split of 70/30
and zeroed TOT beginning FY2012-13.

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST

Sales & Occupancy Taxes
Sales Tax

Sales+TOT

Linear (Sales Tax)

Linear (Sales+TOT)

14

Revenue ($Millions)

13

y = 0.3200x - 631.2104

12
11
10
9
8
y = -0.0179x + 42.497

7
6
5
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Fiscal Year Ending
Figure A-2. This chart plots sales tax and TOT, as well as linear regression “trendlines” for the two.

Figure A-2 shows that while sales tax has trended downward by $17,900 per year, the sum of
sales tax + TOT has trended upward by $320,000 per year. By comparison, PTI is hoped to be at
least 3.5% of $170 million, or about $6 million per year. Sales + TOT are therefore only 5% of
anticipated PTI that is necessary to make the funding plan for Northern Branch Jail operating
cost work.
STATISTICAL SIMULATION
To understand how reliable it may – or may not – be to plan a budget based on difficult-topredict PTI, the Jury set up a simple spreadsheet-based model, then ran the model hundreds of
iterations to assess the likelihood that the funding plan would succeed, given the scenarios listed
in the table below. This technique is often referred to as a “Monte Carlo Simulation”. The model
we used assumes that the property tax follows a normal (or “bell-shaped”) distribution described
by a mean value (the center and highest value of the bell-shaped curve) and a standard deviation
that measures the width of the distribution. A random number generator is used to select numbers
randomly from the distribution.
Table A-1 is an example of a single iteration from the simulation. The model displays property
tax values for 2012-2023 and calculates the annual increase relative to the prior year. Twentyfive percent of that increase is diverted to the County Fire Department; the prescribed dollar
amount from Table 1 (“Plan Funding Increase over Prior Year”) is diverted to the Northern
Branch Jail. What is left over each year is the “PTI Available to All other Depts”. When an
iteration calculates that even a single year from FY2014-15 onward will have a negative value
for “PTI Available to All other Depts”, that iteration is considered a failure because that outcome
would be disruptive to County finances. When all years through FY2022-23 show positive

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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NORTHERN BRANCH JAIL OPERATING COST
values of “PTI Available to All other Depts”, that iteration is considered a success.

Table A-1. This example of a single iteration from the simulation that fails because “PTI Available to All
Other Depts” is negative for FY2018-19.

Table A-2 indicates the likelihood that the current plan to fund operating cost of Northern
Branch Jail will succeed, given a specific average PTI and standard deviation for the PTI.
Historically, the average PTI from 1979 through 2013 is 7.1 percent with standard deviation of
3.8 percent. That entry in the table shows a failed outcome in over 40% of simulation iterations.
From 2009 through 2013, average PTI was 1.6 percent with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent –
a scenario that has a very low chance of succeeding.
Average PTI
1.6%
7.9%
4.4%
10.6%
3.8%
7.1%
4.0%
3.5%
4.0%

Standard
Likelihood
Deviation of PTI of Success:
6%
1.7%
1.6%
99%
30%
3.2%
99%
2.4%
1.7%
67%
3.8%
56%
1.0%
1.0%
1.7%

>95%
88%
69%

Period this
Occurred
FYE 2009-13
FYE 1999-08
FYE 1989-98
FYE 1979-88
FYE 1993-00
FYE 1979-13

Bubble Burst
Real Estate Bubble
Relative Prosperity
Decade Post Prop 13
Relative Prosperity
Entire Post Prop 13

Hypothetical
Hypothetical
Hypothetical

Desirable
Acceptable
Marginal

COMMENT

Table A-2. Tabulation of Success Rate predicted by the Simulation for a specific Average Property Tax
Increase and Standard Deviation of the Increase. “Period” column shows the time span for which that
distribution actually occurred, in fiscal years ending (FYE)

The table shows that there are periods in which this plan would work. But it reveals the County
must average 3.5 to 4 percent PTI through FY2022-23, with standard deviation of 1 percent or
less. Citizens can reasonably expect better PTI than for the recent period for 2009-13; but they
should also expect substantially less PTI than for 1999-2008. Consistent increases in property tax
revenue of 3.5 percent will require a level of planning and execution to capture increases due to
property turnover and improved valuation. The future financial wellbeing of our county demands
that the Board of Supervisors and citizens pay close attention to this critical issue.

2013-14 Santa Barbara County Grand Jury

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